Driven by an older population and a significant increase in risk factors such as high blood pressure and obesity, total costs related to cardiovascular disease (CVD) conditions are likely to triple by 2050, according to the American Heart Association.

Sixty-one percent of U.S. adults–more than 184 million people–are expected to have some type of CVD within the next 30 years, which will have a $1.8 trillion price tag in direct and indirect costs.

Direct costs include the actual cost of healthcare. Indirect costs include premature death and lost economic productivity time taken off work to seek care or the inability to work due to a disability

 “We recognize monumental accomplishments in the fight against cardiovascular disease which includes all types of heart and vascular disease, along with stroke. Drates from heart disease have been cut in half in the past 100 years. Deaths from stroke have been cut by a third since the creation of the American Stroke Association in 1998,” said the volunteer chair of the advisories’ writing groups, Dr. Karen Joynt Maddox, chairowman of two presidential advisories that have studied the subject. “Yet, these are still leading causes of death and disability in the U.S.”

Heart disease has been the leading cause of death in the U.S. since the inception of the American Heart Association in 1924, and stroke is currently the fifth- leading cause of death. Together, they kill more people than all forms of cancers and chronic respiratory illnesses combined, with annual deaths from cardiovascular disease now approaching 1 million nationwide.

American Heart Association’s chief executive officer, Nancy Brown, said “the landscape of cardiovascular health will change over the next three decades because of the coming tsunami of rising healthcare costs, an older population living longer, and increasing numbers of people from under-resourced populations.” She noted predictions of “a dire human and economic toll from heart disease and stroke if changes are not made. However, this does not have to be the reality of our future.”

From 2020 (the most recent data available) to 2050, projected increases of CVD and risk factors contributing to it in the U.S. include:

• High blood pressure will increase from 51 percent to 61 percent, and since high blood pressure is a type of CVD, that means more than 184 million people will have a clinical diagnosis of CVD by 2050, compared to 128 million in 2020.
• Cardiovascular disease, including stroke, (but not including high blood pressure) will increase from 11 percent to 15 percent, from 28 million to 45 million adults.
• Stroke prevalence will nearly double from 10 million to almost 20 million adults.
• Obesity will increase from 43 percent to 60 percent, impacting more than 180 million people.
• Diabetes will increase from 16 percent to 26 percent, impacting more than 80 million people.
• High blood pressure will be most prevalent in people 80 and older, but the number of people with hypertension will be highest – and rising – in younger and middle-age adults (20 to 64 years old).
• The 20-to-64 group also will have the highest prevalence and highest growth for obesity, with more than 70 million young adults having a poor diet.

But there is good news: More adults are embracing healthy behaviors. The percentage of people with inadequate physical activity will decrease, along with the rates of smokers. Tobacco smoking is one of the deadliest factors of CVD.

Adults are “taking control of their health and making positive change,” said Dr. Joseph Wu, M.D., president of the American Heart Association.

The outlook isn’t as optimistic for children, though. Obesity among kids 2 to 19 and poor physical activity and diet are predicted to either rise or remain high between now and 2050.

Source: American Hearth Assocciation (heart.org, 800-AHA-USA1).